4.1 Trade and Capital Flows


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So the last big issue we need to consider here is - is there an external constraint on government spending arising from the external sector - the trade and finance sector? Let's get some basics to start with. In MMT, exports are a cost and imports are a benefit, which is typically the opposite of the way we think about them.

The IMF is obsessed with export-led growth, and that just means that the economy is putting all its real resources onto boats and sending them to the benefits of foreigners and not being able to use them themselves.

In MMT, we acknowledge that if you're giving away your real resources to foreigners, that's a cost. And if the foreigners are willing to give their real resources in the form of imported goods and services, that's a benefit to you.

Why would you export under those circumstances?

Well, obviously, to make sure that you can get foreign currency so that you can buy imports that are necessary because not every economy produces everything.

Now, the goal of trade is consumption - to maximise out the benefits of consuming goods and services.

And so if we can persuade the rest of the world to send more things, goods and services on boats to us than we send to them, then we're actually doing better than others.

Now, the problem, in other words, running an external deficit is in consumption terms, beneficial. But the problem is that that can change very quickly. And the reason why the rest of the world would want to do that - put more things on ships to send than they get back - is because they want to increase financial claims denominated in your currency. Because when you're running an external deficit, the surplus nation relative to you are accumulating these claims in your currency.

Now, let's think about another dimension of this first, that's the exchange rate. It's just a relative price between currencies. The point is, if the exchange rate depreciates, imports become more expensive and exports become more attractive. We're not clear whether that improves a trade deficit or not. It probably does, but there are highly technical arguments about that.

But the issue about exchange rate depreciation is that imports become more expensive and we can import inflationary pressures from the rest of the world.

Now, the big debate is whether if a government runs fiscal deficits, does that predispose an economy to imported price inflation, which then has to be cut off by contractionary domestic products? Now, the research literature is quite clear.

There's no evidence linking exchange rate movements to fiscal policy positions - none at all.

And in general, the demand for your currency is not dependent upon whether the government's running a fiscal deficit or not, but on things like whether the nation has a strong rule of law, whether it's got a highly educated workforce, whether it's got a strong economy that's providing foreigners who want to invest in your economy with good returns.

Now Australia, for example, where I live mostly, is a small open economy that's been running consistent external deficits for years.

Our currency goes up and down but we don't have currency crises because we're a stable democracy with strong adherence to rule of law and contractual certainty, a highly educated workforce and we provide foreign investors with strong investment opportunities.

Now, the next question is, well, if foreigners are running surpluses against you, they're generating these financial claims, accumulating your currency in other words, isn't that bad? What are they going to do with it?

Well, if the economy is unregulated, they can engage, for example, in real estate speculation. Think about the Russian property ownership in London these days, and they can manipulate local assets with the currency that they have built up from running surpluses against you.

Now, that can be easily overcome if you have strong regulatory environment for foreign investment restrictions, just say that the foreigners can invest in certain things like crowd out like those from real estate markets. What else could they do with those accumulated local currency balances?

Well, I could sell them off in foreign exchange markets. In other words, convert it to the local dollars into their own currency. If they do that suddenly and in big volumes, they'll just make losses because they'll drive your currency down relative to theirs. And why would they do that? And sometimes, yes, there are speculative pressures on your own currency.

And in that case, a government has the legal authority to impose capital controls which restrict the cross-border flows of currencies. In other words, lock dollars into the local economy. And during the GFC, Iceland, for example, a tiny little volcanic rock had the biggest banking crash in the whole crises, and hedge funds then tried to destabilise their currency by shifting it out quickly. And the Icelandic government imposed capital controls and tied up that force stop them being able to convert their investments locally into foreign currencies and therefore they were able to stabilise their own currency. So in that context, in the extreme, a democratic government can impose capital controls.

Now, here are some qualifications. In general, protection of local industry and a restriction on imports damages consumers but there are reasons why you would want to place restrictions on trade.

One of them is the national defence argument. You want to have some manufacturing capacity to make sure you can build armaments and all of that, you know, and defend your society.

And the pandemic has taught us also that reliance on global supply chains for essential medical capacity may be flawed and that societies are building into more self-sustaining policy positions.

And the last thing that I'll say is about developing countries - the poorer countries. Now, a lot of critics say that all MMT isn't relevant to those countries because they haven't got any monetary sovereignty and I urge you to listen to the interviews with my colleagues Ndongo Sylla and Fadhel Kaboub, about that, who are experts on this question.

But in general, the point is this - that having your own currency, no matter whether you're a developing country or an advanced country, as we've learnt, means that the government can use that currency to bring all the available productive resources into full employment, into productive use.

The problem for developing countries is they might not have met very many available resources, which means that having your own currency doesn't make an economy materially rich. It just means what you've got, you can bring into full utilisation. But if you listen to those interviews, you'll learn much more about why MMT is relevant to advanced countries and the poorest countries in the world.

End of Transcript



Study Notes:

Nations trade to expand their consumption possibilities. In a world where we produce to consume, receiving goods and services is better in real terms than sending them elsewhere. In that context, MMT characterises exports as a cost and imports as a benefit to a nation.

Exports require the nation incur an opportunity cost by sending real resources (embodied in products or raw) to foreigners which could be used locally. Conversely, imports represent foreigners giving up their real resources (embodied in products or raw), which are then enjoyed by the importing nation. Accordingly, external deficits (imports greater than exports) mean that a nation enjoys a higher material living standard.

Running external surpluses (exports greater than imports) effectively means that the nation is depriving its citizens of a higher material standard of living. They are working too hard, being paid too little, and/or under consuming.

Clearly, a nation that merely gives up material resources and gets nothing in return would be making itself poorer in material terms. And certainly, the history of colonial nations is riven with examples of resource plunder from colonial masters.

That exports are a ‘cost’ suggests the motive to export. The ‘cost’ is incurred to generate benefits – to enhance the material prosperity of the nation. One reason that would lead a nation to relinquish access to its own real resources would be to get other real resources that it desires from other nations through trade. Which means the export cost is best considered as an investment in generating an increased capacity to import.

The real terms of trade for a nation are defined in terms of what exports are required to acquire imports. A trade deficit is a sign that the real terms of trade are working in favour of the deficit nation.

What are some consequences for a nation running an external deficit?

First, foreigners (surplus nations) build up financial claims in the currency of the deficit nation. If the government allowed, they might liquidate these claims purchasing real estate (for example, Russian and Chinese property acquisitions in London). But the nation state can legislate whatever restrictions they like in this regard.

Second, the foreigners might liquidate their local currency holdings in forex markets. But that would expose them to losses if the sell-offs were large enough to promote exchange rate depreciation.

Third, if the local currency holdings end up in the hands of speculators, a nation state can always impose capital controls to protect its currency.

Fourth, foreign interests may seek to use their financial clout to manipulate the local political debate through donations and through media domination. However, strict campaign funding and media ownership rules can militate against these negative consequences.

Finally, some argue that persistent external deficits accelerate the process of deindustrialisation (loss of manufacturing capacity), which reduces opportunities for high-skilled, well paid employment, damages productivity growth and innovation, and leaves the nation reliant on imported goods and services.

A government can always adopt a forward-thinking industry policy to expand domestic industry, spawn innovating research and development, upskill the workforce, build export capacity, etc, as long it has available real resources or can acquire them from abroad.

An MMT understanding allows us to appreciate that there would be no financial impediment for a government building national industries, funding research and development, providing first-class universities and apprenticeship training and the rest.

If a nation with its own currency slides into oblivion by closing its manufacturing sector, cutting career public sector jobs and relying on low-paid and precarious service sector jobs for employment creation, then that has little to do with running external deficits, and everything to do with political choices.

Further, there are reasons for maintaining a manufacturing sector, which include maintaining infrastructure as part of a defence strategy and building self-sufficiency in essential goods and services (such as health care products).




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